From IFC uptake to ‘basic economy’, we reveal some of the key developments for commercial aviation in 2017.
Those who still pine for the days of Concorde will be excited by Denver startup Boom’s plans to build supersonic planes that will travel even faster than their predecessor but with fares a quarter of the price. The world’s speediest pie in the sky? Time will tell – the company intends to build a one-third scale prototype by the end of the year.
Back in the subsonic world, Airbus has scheduled first customer deliveries of its A330neo for the final quarter of the year. The second half of the year will see Qatar Airways take first deliveries of the A350-1000, the biggest twin-engine jet that Airbus has so far produced.
Over at Boeing, the first member of its new, more efficient single-aisle plane family, the 737 MAX 8, will begin deliveries. Launch customer is Southwest. Norwegian is also expecting delivery, which it says will allow it to fulfil its promise of $69 transatlantic fares this year. 2017 will also see first flights for the 787-10, which is the newest and biggest Dreamliner, and the 737 MAX 9.
Perhaps the most significant new airliner to take to the skies in 2017 will be the Comac C919, which spearheads the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China’s bid to take on Boeing and Airbus. Although the project has been beset by delays, the company remains bullish. As it says, “The letter ‘C’ is the first letter of both ‘COMAC’ and ‘China’. It indicates that this trunk liner programme is the will of China and her people.”
In Russia, Vladimir Putin has also expressed a wish – for the country’s United Aircraft Corporation to become a player in the single-aisle stakes, and the result is the Irkut MC-21, which should take to the skies early this year.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Embraer is progressing work on its biggest ever airliner, the E195-E2. It’s due to make its first flight in 2017.
2017 will go down in the history books as the year that inflight connectivity came of age. Inmarsat’s GX Aviation solution continues its roll out this year, offering consistent, high quality Wi-Fi in the sky. Its current three satellites will be joined by a fourth in the summer.
Lufthansa will be first out of the blocks, with around 20 aircraft fitted with internet access during the first quarter of the year. The entire Lufthansa fleet will be equipped with the new technology by the middle of 2018. Austrian Airlines will also fit all of its 31 aircraft with internet access by the end of April 2017.
Eurowings will become the first low-cost carrier to offer GX Aviation, beginning in the first quarter of the year, with a total of 69 aircraft fitted out with the system by the summer.
Other operators rolling out GX Aviation this year include Singapore Airlines, Norwegian, Air Astana and Air New Zealand.
Inmarsat’s groundbreaking European Aviation Network also ramps up this year with the construction of hundreds of ground towers across Europe and the mid-2017 launch of an S-Band satellite.
The combined network will allow the delivery of “on-the-ground” quality Wi-Fi to planes in the air across all 28 European Union states, plus Norway and Switzerland. Designed specifically for high traffic flight paths and busy airport hubs, the network will support streaming and other high bandwidth requirements.
Delta set the trend for so-called ‘basic economy’, and now American and United are set to join them in throwing out the frills. However, the new fares, which only allow carry-on baggage that will fit under the seat and limit seat assignment to the day of departure, have caused controversy.
“One of the last sacred conveniences of air travel” was how angry US Senator Charles E Schumer described the overhead bins that are now out of bounds for basic economy passengers. We can expect more in a similar vein from other airlines as economy passengers begin to feel the squeeze.
American Airlines, for example, has announced that its new 737 MAX aircraft will have no in-seat video screens, instead relying on the fact that 90% of its passengers bring a device on board that they can hook up to the inflight Wi-Fi network.
Things are looking rosier for passengers nearer the pointy end, however. Business class suites are increasingly on the agenda and fully flat beds with direct aisle access should start to become the norm (think United’s Polaris product, which is fully rolling out this year).
In First class, seat numbers are likely to decline, but advances in business class will up the ante. (“What, no suites?”) Luxury brand extras and innovative pampering items (such as Emirates’ recently introduced ‘moisturising pyjamas’ for First class passengers) are also likely to become even more of a battleground. And will other airlines decide to follow the lead of Qatar Executive’s growing fleet of luxurious private jets?
$29.8bn. That’s IATA’s forecast for net profit in the global airline industry in 2017, meaning a third consecutive year (and the third year in the industry’s history) in which airlines will make a return on invested capital that’s above the weighted average cost of capital. It’s a big number, although significantly down on the $35.6bn projected for 2016.
Rising oil prices are seen as the biggest drag on profits, while growth in capacity will see a corresponding lowering of the global load factor. However, global economic growth and structural changes in the industry should offset these factors somewhat, according to IATA. North America has the rosiest outlook, underpinned by recent consolidation, while African carriers are expected to deliver the weakest financial performance.
For more airline financial forecast information, read the IATA report.
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